Book Review: The Black Swan

I'd like to quickly mention- I'm not doing a specific book challenge this year. I am keeping track of how many books I read, but I don't have a set goal. Namely because there are several books I'd like to re-read without having to stress about meeting a goal. Also, I'll be posting reviews as I finish books from my reviews on Goodreads. Please note that my rating system is generally based on how much I personally enjoyed the book. Thus, in the case of this book, which I gave a 2 out of 5 stars (described as "it's okay" on Goodreads), it wasn't that I didn't find it thought-provoking or worth reading (which I think this book is)... but my enjoyment level wasn't very high.


The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb


My rating: 2 of 5 stars
This book describes the nature of uncertainty- and our ability to predict it. There are pluses and minuses about this book. As a scientist, I found parts very fascinating- for example, the idea that we can't predict the future based on past events. The author's arguments for this were convincing. I also liked the idea that while all past data can't prove something is 100% true, one point can prove something is false. On the other hand, I found the author to be very self-aggrandizing- he seems to frequently pat himself on the back and name-drop, which was really irritating (not only to me, evidently, judging by Goodreads reviews). I also didn't agree with all his arguments. For example, I agree the Gaussian distribution won't accurately describe social and economic phenomena- but I think atmospheric and other natural phenomena actually frequently have Gaussian characteristics (and when persistence is a problem, for example, we can account for that). Though he gave plenty of examples, he never really made it clear how to distinguish between variables that might use a Gaussian distribution and those that don't. In fact, in most cases, he gave a lot of examples but little actual theory- in a sense, I felt he was using the very "narrative fallacy" that he protests so much against. Overall, I suppose would suggest this book to other scientists, as it does bring up a lot of ideas for discussion... though I think the arguments get very repetitive and redundant after part 2.

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